Ninety-eight teams have already faced this problem, and none of them have ever climbed out of it and escape with a big game seven win (according to SilverScreen&Roll, only three teams were able to force a game seven). With history going against the Lakers, it might be sufficient to say that they're almost screwed. One wrong move in the last games, and it'll be over for them, thus ending Phil Jackson's coaching career with a big loss.
But looking at that little bright spot in the dark tunnel, what are the things that the Lakers need to do to, at least, survive the shame of being swept? Here are some quick points that they need to take seriously
Defensive Adjustments
We have seen how the Lakers execute adjustments in Game 3 to avoid elimination, and they have become successful in the first three quarters. They were able to properly defend the paint and kept Nowitzki and Chandler outside). However, the Mavericks killed the Lakers through streaky three-point shooting, thanks to Dirk and former Sacramento King Peja Stojakovic (who seems to bear some kind of grudge against the Lakers from beating the Kings back in '01). L.A. left a lot of wide open three-pointers, especially in the last stretch of the game, including the one Stojakovic nailed off a pass from a triple-teamed Dirk Nowitzki.
This is definitely a call to flexibility. The backcourt has to move more often, make better decisions on switching and shifting defenses and always make sure that there's a hand to raise against the shooter. Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher need to do that a lot, and hopefully their legs don't give up in the process.
Late Game Management
In Game 1, the Lakers were holding a good 16-point lead, until they broke down in the second half and gave the Mavericks the win after a Kobe Bryant miss. Game 2 could have been a good game if not for the messy third quarter. Finally, Game 3 could have been a win if not for the lousy way the Lakers handled the final three minutes.
Last year, the Lakers were the greatest closers of the game. This year, they were the greatest that can be closed. And what goes wrong this time was their defense. Sure, they can force missed shots in the first three quarters, but the observable pattern in these last three games was that they gave up too much points in the fourth, coupled with early penalty. In game 3, the Lakers were in the penalty as early as six minutes before the end of the fourth quarter, and as a result, the Mavs were able to score without the time running, something that the Lakers should keep going when having an early lead.
Instead, they executed "comfort plays," where they score and sprint off, hoping to get another one just in case Dallas gets to score. Well, get this, the Lakers did that except that Lamar Odom wasn't able to tie the game, and eventually get a road win. Perhaps the solution is simple. The Lakers should tighten their defenses and stop tit-for-tatting in the final canto. They have to deny those baskets like they did in the first three quarters. Just make it consistent, and things will work out.
Wise Aggression
One factor that the Lakers can't definitely control are the foul calls (unless, you know, stakes are higher and the refs could be controlling the game, but everyone would doubt that). Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum drew 2 early fouls apiece, and it limited their playing time, which could have been utilized to extend the leads. Likewise, Fisher's foul on Jason Terry enabled them to seal the game, and the only thing that the Lakers (and fans) can do is wince and hope that it wouldn't be the end on Monday.
Smart defense is what the Lakers need, and most of the time, Ron Artest knows this. They have to check their man well and figure out a way to not get called for a foul. It's not the easy thing to do, but it's something necessary, and they have to figure that out.
Frontcourt Adjustments
Everyone has their eyes on Pau Gasol, for he is not being himself during the whole playoffs. He did not become the dangerous Spanish Armada as he was during the past two years, and Dirk is definitely owning him on both sides.
Despite Bynum and Odom doing well, Gasol is still the barometer of the Lakers, and if he does not do well in distracting the defense, then the Lakers lose another game, which was the case during the past nine playoff games. If the Lakers need to win four games, then four games should Gasol find his post, beat Nowitzki on the block, and score.
On the other hand, Bynum and Odom need to be careful in terms of defending and choosing where to shoot. They have to force the ball in and draw fouls instead of shooting six-foot blanks. And they need to do this always, and consistently. Once they get Nowitzki and/or Chandler to foul trouble, then the paint would not be a problem in terms of offense.
The Verdict?
Lakers fans would of course hope for a miracle. But then, let's be realistic here. Going back to the start, it's hard to win from an 0-3 hole.
But as Coach Phil Jackson says, it's difficult but not impossible. Very difficult, actually.
The Lakers now have the pressure to consistently enforce these things and avoid late game blunders, and these should be done in four straight games. It's a real challenge, but perhaps the toughest in the Lakers history. It is the greatest challenge Kobe Bryant and his squad has to face since the Boston Celtics.
And it all boils down, in these four games, to this: Can these guys do it? Let's just hope they can. We want to make the series more exciting.
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