The Race To The Final Four: 12 (Plus 4) Possible Scenarios

Last Sunday, the Blue Eagles defeated the Red Warriors, 77-72, to increase their chances entering the Final Four, all at the expense of eliminating the Red Warriors from the race to the men's basketball championship. With five teams up against each other's necks in vouching not just for the Final Four slot but also for the twice-to-beat advantage that the top two teams enjoy after eliminations, it's time to find out where the Blue Eagles will find themselves into. This might be something new for recent Blue Eagles fans (maybe since Season 73), because this is only one of the rare moments since Season 66 that the team has been hanging on to the top four spot and not sitting pretty on top of the standings, but this is something that's important to consider because it will show how far can the team go, not only in terms of this season, but in their whole championship run that started in Season 71.

But first a few preliminary considerations.

• The Blue Eagles have only two games left, namely against the NU Bulldogs on the 11th of September and against the UST Growling Tigers, and there are only 4 possibilities that are left insofar as the team is concerned, which will be the bulk of discussion below. But because the focus of this discussion is to see where the Blue Eagles will be in the Final Four, one possibility will have to be ruled out, which would be to suffer two straight losses that will immediately boot them out of contention. However, I will also include them in the final part.
• Two games left should also be considered, namely the one between the DLSU Green Archers and the UST Growling Tigers, and one between the FEU Tamaraws and the UP Fighting Maroons. While the first game's winner could just be anyone, given their chances of winning against each other, the second game will be of less concern, because we know how UP and FEU respectively have played this season (duh moment there, right?). But nevertheless, I will include them should the slim chance of the Fighting Maroons defeating the Tamaraws would happen.
• Finally, because rankings are of utmost concern here, we will also consider the quotient system, which I have put here as the cumulative margins of victory between two, three, or four teams. We will also consider the usual league rules that apply when two or more teams share the same ranking. These rules might seem outdated (or I can be mistaken altogether), but from experience, here is how they go: (a) in case of same ranking in the first to third spot of the Final Four, seeding will be determined by the quotients of teams with whom they share the same ranking (e.g. if Team A, B, and C have a record of 10-4, their quotients will be added up, and the highest quotient will determine the highest spot), (b) If there are more than two teams with the same margin of victory, and two teams share the same quotient, the one with the greatest quotient between the two alone will get the higher spot (e.g. if Team A, B, and C are tied, and teams B and C have the same quotient, the higher seeded team will be the one who has the higher quotient between B and C alone), if it's still tied, then it will be necessary to look at the team's overall quotient (against all teams) by the end of eliminations, (c) if the fourth and fifth seed will have the same ranking, they can either be decided by quotient or by a playoff game.

Having those laid down, then I guess it's time to lay down the three possibilities wherein the Blue Eagles will garner at least the fourth spot in the Final Four.

1.If the Blue Eagles win against NU and UST.
Seems to be something that's doable but highly improbable, considering the level of difficulty when facing against the Bulldogs. Nevertheless, let's see what could happen.

1.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4
FEU 10-4
NU 9-5*
AdMU 9-5*

DLSU and FEU get the twice-to-beat advantage, respectively. While NU and Ateneo will be at the the 3 and 4 spot.

*If the Blue Eagles win with a margin of 11 points or more, then they can take the 3 spot and face FEU (which I think will be easier than being in number four).

1.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
FEU 10-4
NU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
AdMU 9-5

Nothing much here, everything's somehow sealed quotient's clear so far regarding this.

1.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
DLSU 10-4
NU 9-5*
AdMU 9-5*
FEU 9-5*

By quotient system between NU (+7), Ateneo (+5), and FEU (-20), the Bulldogs will get the twice-to-beat advantage, while FEU and Ateneo will settle for third and fourth place. However, if Ateneo wins by 2 points or more against NU, the it could raise Ateneo to 2 and NU to 3 (quotient will be as follows: Ateneo with +7, NU with +5, and FEU with -20).

1.4. If UST wins and UP wins
NU 9-5*
DLSU 9-5*
AdMU 9-5*
FEU 9-5*

These rankings are determined by quotient as of press time (NU with +12, DLSU with +11, AdMU with -6, and FEU with -7). This means that the margin of victory between NU and Ateneo has not been factored in yet given that they still have to face each other. Perhaps what could significantly change this is when the Blue Eagles will win against the Bulldogs with a margin of 2 points or more, which in that case would put DLSU on top while NU will slide at number two.

2.If the Blue Eagles lose against NU but win against UST
Highly probable, I should say.

2.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4*
NU 10-4*
FEU 10-4*
AdMU 8-6

This, I think, is most likely to happen. Quotient between La Salle, NU and FEU are +2, 0, and -2 respectively.

2.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
NU 10-4
FEU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
AdMU 8-6

By quotient against FEU, the Bulldogs will take the top spot.

2.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
NU 10-4
DLSU 10-4
FEU 9-5
AdMU 8-6

Quotient determines FEU's win.

2.4 If UST wins and UP wins
NU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
FEU 9-5
AdMU 8-6*

By the quotient system, the fourth spot is for the Blue Eagles to take; however, it is possible that because it is a crucial spot, the UAAP might just decide a playoff even though the Blue Eagles have a positive quotient against UST.

3. If the Blue Eagles win against NU, but lose against UST
This can happen, and this is the most dangerous situation because there are still two instances wherein the Blue Eagles can get booted out of the Final Four.

3.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4
FEU 10-4
NU 9-5
AdMU 8-6

Nothing needed to explain here, except the fact that UST will end up with a 7-7 record and will be eliminated finally.

3.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
FEU 10-4
NU 9-5
DLSU 9-5
UST 9-5

Pray that this doesn't happen.

3.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
DLSU 10-4
NU 9-5
FEU 9-5
AdMU 8-6*
(UST 8-6)*

As long as the Blue Eagles do not lose the game by 3 points or more, they are guaranteed the fourth spot, again UNLESS a playoff will be decided. Otherwise, when the quotient between these two teams get to 0 (the four-point Blue Eagles win in the first round is negated by the four-point Growling Tigers win in the second round), another alternative besides the playoff would be their total quotient, which, as it stands is +40 for the Blue Eagles and +36 for the Growling Tigers. At least at this point, the Blue Eagles have the upper hand, and it will depend on their remaining games if the figures will rise or drop.

3.4 If UST wins and UP wins
NU 9-5*
FEU 9-5*
DLSU 9-5*
UST 9-5*

Rankings determined by current quotient (not including the matches between AdMU v UST and DLSU v UST), which are at +20, +7, -5, and -22 respectively. Also, pray that this doesn't happen.

So here are the situations so far for the Blue Eagles if they want to enter into the Final Four. Anything between those 10 (except 3.2 and 3.4, and maybe 3.3 to be safe) would be good enough for the Blue Eagles, and then things can begin again from there.

But you ask, what happens when we lose both games? Good thing you asked.

4. If the Blue Eagles lose against NU and UST.

4.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4*
NU 10-4*
FEU 10-4*
UST 8-6

Ranking is determined by quotient.

4.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
NU 10-4*
FEU 10-4*
DLSU 9-5**
UST 9-5**

Both sets' rankings are determined by quotient.

4.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
NU 10-4*
DLSU 10-4*
FEU 9-5**
UST 9-5**

Same as 4.2

4.4 If UST wins and UP wins
NU 10-4
FEU 9-5*
DLSU 9-5*
UST 9-5*

Quotient between the three determines rankings (+4, 0, and -4 respectively)

The possibilities are there, but which of these situations will be actualized? We get to see this as the games will be played in the next few days.