Season 76 Finals Preview: DLSU vs. UST

De La Salle Green Archers (10-4, #2) vs. UST Growling Tigers (8-6, #4)

Let's admit it, all the hype behind the DLSU-UST Finals is mostly the match-up between the Teng brothers. But then, it's more than that.

Season 76 Matches

Round 1: UST def. DLSU, 63-58 (OT)

• Jeric Teng (UST): 23 pts (10/24 FG, 0/5 3FG), 2rebs, 3 assts
• Jason Perkins (DLSU): 13 pts (5/11 FG, 0/1 3FG), 9 rebs (4 ORebs), 2 assts
• Rebounding difference: +8 DLSU (52-44, 17-9 Orebs)
• Free throws: DLSU 9/19 (47%), UST 17/23 (74%), Jeron Teng fouled out in OT
• DLSU went on a 10-2 run in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 51, only to falter at the final minutes, with UST finishing the last five minutes with a 12-7 run

Round 2: DLSU def. UST, 69-64

• Jeron Teng (DLSU): 19 pts (6/14 FG, 1/2 3FG, 6/7 FTA), 11rebs (5 ORebs), 2assts, 1stl, 1blk
• Karim Abdul (UST): 18 pts (4/12 FG, 10/14 FTA), 12 rebs, 1stl
• Green Archers snapped the Growling Tigers' 3-game winning streak, sweeps the second round of the eliminations
• Rebounding difference: +12 DLSU (53-41, 19-9 ORebs)
• Free throws: DLSU 13/17, UST 23/30

Five Factors

1. Backcourt

DLSU

LA Revilla - 6.2 ppg, 3.3rpg, 2.5apg, 0.9spg, 0bpg

Almond Vosotros - 13.0ppg, 4.9rpg, 1.9apg, 0.2bpg

UST

Jam Sheriff - 2.8ppg, 2.9rpg, 1.9apg, 0.4spg, 0bpg

Jeric Teng - 12.4ppg, 4.5rpg, 1.9apg, 0.6spg, 0bpg

Coach Pido Jarencio took the risk of fielding in Sheriff instead of Ed Daquioag, and in the Final Four bout against the NU Bulldogs, having a pure point guard who is going to run and merely set up passes proved to be effective. Given that Sheriff had to battle it out with Gelo Alolino and Robin Rono, both scoring point guards of their own right, handling LA Revilla might not be that difficult for him. However, one has to take note that Revilla is a more potent and able scorer than Alolino or Rono, and can go on a scoring frenzy especially now that he has the height advantage.

The Green Archers, however, have to hope as well that Almond Vosotros' shooting touch would return just in time to save the team. Since his 6 of 16 performance against the UE Red Warriors, he's gone 6 of 38 in the next four games (UE, UST, and twice against FEU), making only 1 out of 29 triples. The swashbuckling, pistol-wielding Jeric Teng, meanwhile, is back to his old form as a volume scorer, with mastery on the high and mid-post on the left baseline that makes up for the fact that all season long, he has just shot barely 18% of his triples. What can only be DLSU's hope in placing Vosotros against Teng is the former's resilience and determination in defending and containing Teng, keeping him out of his comfort zones, forcing threes out of him instead of letting him post up and position himself for a bank shot.

Advantage: 60-40 UST. Jeric Teng's consistency carried them to the Finals. If DLSU wants to catch up, they are going to need Vosotros and Revilla together to work.

2.Frontcourt

DLSU

Jeron Teng - 14.5ppg, 7.0rpg, 3.0apg, 0.8spg, 0.5bpg

Jason Perkins - 12.5ppg, 9.5rpg, 1.7apg, 0.3spg, 0.6bpg

Arnold Van Opstal - 8.9ppg, 6.3rpg, 0.9apg, 0spg, 0.9bpg

UST

Aljon Mariano - 12.7ppg, 8.9rpg, 2.3apg, 0.5spg, 0.2bpg 

Kevin Ferrer - 12.4ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.9apg, 0.7spg, 0.9bpg

Karim Abdul - 15.1ppg, 11.4rpg, 1.1apg, 0.9spg, 2.0bpg

The Green Archers play defense, and it's anchored on their frontcourt. In their second round sweep, it was mostly the different combinations on the four and five spots that Coach Juno Sauler played that carried the whole team. Perhaps it's Arnold Van Opstal's huge improvement from Season 75 as well as the overall play of the Hefty Lefty that has made the difference so far in this elimination rounds. Van Opstal can pretty much manage the post and dominate whoever going against him, while Perkins set the perfect picks for Teng and Revilla to cut through and make outside shooters more available once the defense collapses on the paint.

The same can be said of UST, but with an asterisk: Karim Abdul's performance. The third year center has it all on both sides of the court: speed, ability to cut, the post, midrange shooting, manning the paint, and the list even goes on (his Final Four averages, on both games against NU, shot to 13-13, close to his elimination figures). There are times, however, that he just settles to pull up rather than bully his defender in or get past him after a hard pick. If the Growling Tigers want to win this championship after a rather dramatic Season 75 loss against the Blue Eagles, then it will all be up to Abdul to carry them.

Advantage: 80-20 DLSU. Not that UST's frontcourt game isn't good, but they can't have two Karim Abduls to match up against the Twin Towers.

3.Bench

DLSU

Norbert Torres - 7.1ppg, 8.2rpg, 0.8apg, 0.1spg, 0.6bpg, 23.3mpg
Thomas Torres - 5.8ppg, 3.5rpg, 2.6apg, 0.6spg, 0.2bpg, 20.8mpg

UST

Ed Daquioag - 8.0ppg, 4.1rpg, 2.4apg, 0.6spg, 0.2bpg, 23.3mpg
Clark Bautista - 8.4ppg, 3.7rpg, 1.6apg, 0.4spg, 0bpg, 27.2mpg

Both teams have players that can produce nearly as good as starting lineups, and with defined roles to boot. Thomas Torres has been playing great basketball in the second round, lowering his turnovers and becoming more efficient in scoring, despite the fact that he does not play the role of court general as good as Revilla. Norbert Torres can be paired up with either Perkins or Van Opstal, and there seems to be no decrease in the backcourt performance. As for the Growling Tigers, both Clark Bautista and Ed Daquioag can be relied for quick points, especially when the team has to either catch up or secure the lead. Daquioag's ability to get past slower defenders and even play against point guards (remember that he took the one spot early in the season before Coach Pido inserted Sheriff late in the season) makes him a fastbreak threat, while Bautista remains to be a threat from beyond the arc coming off pops or when standing by and waiting for a catch-and-shoot (23 of 79 triples at 29%, which is not really a bad thing considering his reputation as a "hit-or-miss" gunslinger). However, the scales tip on the Green Archers primarily because no one among the frontcourt guys from the bench can equal his performance (Paulo Pe obviously isn't anywhere near him). If DLSU can force Abdul to sit on the bench due to foul trouble, then the game's as good as done.

Advantage: 80-20 DLSU. Twin Towers. That is all that we need to remember.

4.Offense

If at all, the Growling Tigers have become consistent with their offense, starting with their match against the Blue Eagles. Jeric Teng is back to his former self, which relieves much of the pressure that Aljon Mariano and Kevin Ferrer has carried all season long. It seems that the Growling Tigers know at the back of their heads the offense that Coach Pido wanted for them since Season 75. The Green Archers, however, lived on adjustments all season long, and if it only comes down to responding to each other's shots, DLSU could have their own way not by responding to threes (unless Vosotros brings his A-game back) but to fish fouls and score on the posts or from pick-and-roll plays. If all goes well, expect a slugfest to happen.

Advantage: 60-40 UST. *makes the Jeric Teng gunslinging gesture*. Consistency has been the name of the game for the Tigers, and with Teng, Mariano, and Abdul becoming creative and selective in terms of their shots, whether inside or outside, the DLSU offense has to find their own way of responding to UST's.

5.Defense

This is what would decide everything, given that the Finals is about the top two defensive teams in the league. DLSU has the clear advantage on the paint, but they must hold the fort on the outside and not succumb to the temptation to stretch the defense too far to excessively cover UST's shooters. The second round matchup has shown how Coach Juno Sauler responds to UST's red-hot shooting and has his own ways of dousing it with cold water, and it should work given that the Growling Tigers have largely lived and died with the three-point shot.

Advantage: 70-30 DLSU. Again, UST's lack of (flexible) big men would make things more difficult for them on the defensive end. And if UST intimidated NU with their physical play, the same cannot be said of the Green Archers.

The Verdict:

DLSU in 3 games.

The Race To The Final Four: 12 (Plus 4) Possible Scenarios

Last Sunday, the Blue Eagles defeated the Red Warriors, 77-72, to increase their chances entering the Final Four, all at the expense of eliminating the Red Warriors from the race to the men's basketball championship. With five teams up against each other's necks in vouching not just for the Final Four slot but also for the twice-to-beat advantage that the top two teams enjoy after eliminations, it's time to find out where the Blue Eagles will find themselves into. This might be something new for recent Blue Eagles fans (maybe since Season 73), because this is only one of the rare moments since Season 66 that the team has been hanging on to the top four spot and not sitting pretty on top of the standings, but this is something that's important to consider because it will show how far can the team go, not only in terms of this season, but in their whole championship run that started in Season 71.

But first a few preliminary considerations.

• The Blue Eagles have only two games left, namely against the NU Bulldogs on the 11th of September and against the UST Growling Tigers, and there are only 4 possibilities that are left insofar as the team is concerned, which will be the bulk of discussion below. But because the focus of this discussion is to see where the Blue Eagles will be in the Final Four, one possibility will have to be ruled out, which would be to suffer two straight losses that will immediately boot them out of contention. However, I will also include them in the final part.
• Two games left should also be considered, namely the one between the DLSU Green Archers and the UST Growling Tigers, and one between the FEU Tamaraws and the UP Fighting Maroons. While the first game's winner could just be anyone, given their chances of winning against each other, the second game will be of less concern, because we know how UP and FEU respectively have played this season (duh moment there, right?). But nevertheless, I will include them should the slim chance of the Fighting Maroons defeating the Tamaraws would happen.
• Finally, because rankings are of utmost concern here, we will also consider the quotient system, which I have put here as the cumulative margins of victory between two, three, or four teams. We will also consider the usual league rules that apply when two or more teams share the same ranking. These rules might seem outdated (or I can be mistaken altogether), but from experience, here is how they go: (a) in case of same ranking in the first to third spot of the Final Four, seeding will be determined by the quotients of teams with whom they share the same ranking (e.g. if Team A, B, and C have a record of 10-4, their quotients will be added up, and the highest quotient will determine the highest spot), (b) If there are more than two teams with the same margin of victory, and two teams share the same quotient, the one with the greatest quotient between the two alone will get the higher spot (e.g. if Team A, B, and C are tied, and teams B and C have the same quotient, the higher seeded team will be the one who has the higher quotient between B and C alone), if it's still tied, then it will be necessary to look at the team's overall quotient (against all teams) by the end of eliminations, (c) if the fourth and fifth seed will have the same ranking, they can either be decided by quotient or by a playoff game.

Having those laid down, then I guess it's time to lay down the three possibilities wherein the Blue Eagles will garner at least the fourth spot in the Final Four.

1.If the Blue Eagles win against NU and UST.
Seems to be something that's doable but highly improbable, considering the level of difficulty when facing against the Bulldogs. Nevertheless, let's see what could happen.

1.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4
FEU 10-4
NU 9-5*
AdMU 9-5*

DLSU and FEU get the twice-to-beat advantage, respectively. While NU and Ateneo will be at the the 3 and 4 spot.

*If the Blue Eagles win with a margin of 11 points or more, then they can take the 3 spot and face FEU (which I think will be easier than being in number four).

1.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
FEU 10-4
NU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
AdMU 9-5

Nothing much here, everything's somehow sealed quotient's clear so far regarding this.

1.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
DLSU 10-4
NU 9-5*
AdMU 9-5*
FEU 9-5*

By quotient system between NU (+7), Ateneo (+5), and FEU (-20), the Bulldogs will get the twice-to-beat advantage, while FEU and Ateneo will settle for third and fourth place. However, if Ateneo wins by 2 points or more against NU, the it could raise Ateneo to 2 and NU to 3 (quotient will be as follows: Ateneo with +7, NU with +5, and FEU with -20).

1.4. If UST wins and UP wins
NU 9-5*
DLSU 9-5*
AdMU 9-5*
FEU 9-5*

These rankings are determined by quotient as of press time (NU with +12, DLSU with +11, AdMU with -6, and FEU with -7). This means that the margin of victory between NU and Ateneo has not been factored in yet given that they still have to face each other. Perhaps what could significantly change this is when the Blue Eagles will win against the Bulldogs with a margin of 2 points or more, which in that case would put DLSU on top while NU will slide at number two.

2.If the Blue Eagles lose against NU but win against UST
Highly probable, I should say.

2.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4*
NU 10-4*
FEU 10-4*
AdMU 8-6

This, I think, is most likely to happen. Quotient between La Salle, NU and FEU are +2, 0, and -2 respectively.

2.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
NU 10-4
FEU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
AdMU 8-6

By quotient against FEU, the Bulldogs will take the top spot.

2.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
NU 10-4
DLSU 10-4
FEU 9-5
AdMU 8-6

Quotient determines FEU's win.

2.4 If UST wins and UP wins
NU 10-4
DLSU 9-5
FEU 9-5
AdMU 8-6*

By the quotient system, the fourth spot is for the Blue Eagles to take; however, it is possible that because it is a crucial spot, the UAAP might just decide a playoff even though the Blue Eagles have a positive quotient against UST.

3. If the Blue Eagles win against NU, but lose against UST
This can happen, and this is the most dangerous situation because there are still two instances wherein the Blue Eagles can get booted out of the Final Four.

3.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4
FEU 10-4
NU 9-5
AdMU 8-6

Nothing needed to explain here, except the fact that UST will end up with a 7-7 record and will be eliminated finally.

3.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
FEU 10-4
NU 9-5
DLSU 9-5
UST 9-5

Pray that this doesn't happen.

3.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
DLSU 10-4
NU 9-5
FEU 9-5
AdMU 8-6*
(UST 8-6)*

As long as the Blue Eagles do not lose the game by 3 points or more, they are guaranteed the fourth spot, again UNLESS a playoff will be decided. Otherwise, when the quotient between these two teams get to 0 (the four-point Blue Eagles win in the first round is negated by the four-point Growling Tigers win in the second round), another alternative besides the playoff would be their total quotient, which, as it stands is +40 for the Blue Eagles and +36 for the Growling Tigers. At least at this point, the Blue Eagles have the upper hand, and it will depend on their remaining games if the figures will rise or drop.

3.4 If UST wins and UP wins
NU 9-5*
FEU 9-5*
DLSU 9-5*
UST 9-5*

Rankings determined by current quotient (not including the matches between AdMU v UST and DLSU v UST), which are at +20, +7, -5, and -22 respectively. Also, pray that this doesn't happen.

So here are the situations so far for the Blue Eagles if they want to enter into the Final Four. Anything between those 10 (except 3.2 and 3.4, and maybe 3.3 to be safe) would be good enough for the Blue Eagles, and then things can begin again from there.

But you ask, what happens when we lose both games? Good thing you asked.

4. If the Blue Eagles lose against NU and UST.

4.1 If DLSU wins and FEU wins
DLSU 10-4*
NU 10-4*
FEU 10-4*
UST 8-6

Ranking is determined by quotient.

4.2 If UST wins and FEU wins
NU 10-4*
FEU 10-4*
DLSU 9-5**
UST 9-5**

Both sets' rankings are determined by quotient.

4.3 If DLSU wins and UP wins
NU 10-4*
DLSU 10-4*
FEU 9-5**
UST 9-5**

Same as 4.2

4.4 If UST wins and UP wins
NU 10-4
FEU 9-5*
DLSU 9-5*
UST 9-5*

Quotient between the three determines rankings (+4, 0, and -4 respectively)

The possibilities are there, but which of these situations will be actualized? We get to see this as the games will be played in the next few days.

The Road To Fivefold Glory Part 1: Rivalry Renewed

UAAP Season 75 Final Four
Semifinals
Ateneo 66, De La Salle 63
Blue Eagles Advanced To Season 75 Finals

They say that it is in facing adversity that fuels us, but who would want to face do-or-die situations that can make or break you?

The Blue Eagles have faced a radical sort of adversity before they entered the Final Four. A two week lay-off has given them the opportunity to polish their plays and improve their skills for the big games to come; however, this lay-off has also been marred by one big controversy that the school has faced. Manuel V. Pangilinan, the top sponsor not just of the Blue Eagles but also of the University as a whole, decided to cut ties with the school and the Jesuits. Coach Norman Black, as MVP's employee, offered to step down as a sign of professionalism, but fortunately was allowed to coach the team until the end of the UAAP season. This quick turn of events have somehow left the team confused and disoriented for their next game, not knowing what to do if ever their coach of eight years and now gunning for his fifth title would leave.

Fortunately, MVP decided to stick with the team until the end of the UAAP season, but the problems are far from over, because these Blue Eagles will have to face a streaking Green Archers team, set to return to the Final Four after defeating the Far Eastern University Tamaraws twice, sending the Green and Gold home before they can even vie for a shot at a third Finals appearance. Now that the Green Archers are back in the Final Four following a dismal Season 74 which in turn ushered changes in the coaching staff, each one of the Gang Green would want to get back at the Blue and White for winning 10 of their past 11 matches, a kind of revenge that pushes their rivals to the limit.

And such hunger drove them to play a close game against the Blue Eagles, one that did not start with big Blue Eagle runs that practically defined and determined the first and second rounds during the eliminations. The first quarter ended with 14-12, in favor of the Blue Eagles, with players trading baskets and quickly responding to each other. This went on even until the second round, and before the halftime buzzer, Kiefer Ravena, who has always played big against La Salle, scored six straight points to turn a 3-point deficit into a 5-point lead.

The third quarter has been a golden moment for the Blue Eagles during the past five years, for this is the time when they usually leave their opponents behind en route to a big win; however, this has not been the case against this invigorated La Salle team. By the end of the quarter, the Green Archers threatened the Blue Eagles with a 21-7 run, sending a message saying that they might see each other for one last time this season as they enter the final canto with a 47-38 lead over the defending champions.

Things got worse for the Blue Eagles as the lead stretched to double figures, as the La Salle lead ballooned to 13; however, this moment of adversity served as an opportunity for the Blue Eagles to show what they are really made of and how far they have come since winning their first championship way back in 2008. Coach Norman Black made adjustments to the lineup, reinserting Ryan Buenafe after a long rest and giving Kiefer Ravena the go-signal to dominate and make the game his.

Normally, it's a risky move to put one player in charge of everything during the final minutes, knowing that the opponent can make various adjustments to stop this one player from leading the charge; however, with the Phenom as "that one," the Blue Eagles were able to incredibly claw back into the game. With a 22-6 run that chipped away that Green Archers lead, the noise at the green side of the Coliseum died down, only to be taken over by "Fight!" and "Get that ball!" And just like that, the Blue Eagles are ready to send the De La Salle community home to their Razon Sports Complex to practice for Season 76, all thanks to Kiefer Ravena who, in that run, scored 16 of his own and assisted on the remaining baskets.

Facing a four-point La Salle deficit, Almond Vosotros sparked hope for the green and white after scoring five unanswered points and grabbing the lead during the last two minutes of play. However, the man of the moment, the guy who would always frustrate La Salle as long as he plays for the Blue Eagles would hit another one of his big baskets in his legendary basketball career. Ryan Buenafe, returning to the Final Four after hitting perhaps his biggest three in his career two years ago, hit another corner three to put the Blue Eagles up by two with only a few seconds to go in the game.

The game all the more got interesting when Kiefer Ravena was slapped with an unsportsmanlike foul after an attempt to stop Jeron Teng from getting a quick basket. The Rookie of the Year, with the game on the line and a 60 percent free throw percentage, unfortunately split his charities, followed by a turnover when the ball slipped out of his hands as he was driving towards an open lane. Ryan Buenafe calmly sunk in his freebies and punched the Blue Eagles' ticket to the Season 75 UAAP Finals, where the Growling Tigers await them.

The Blue Eagles swept their season and playoff series against La Salle this season, but with the way the Green Archers overhauled the whole team with promising pieces, it seems that the local basketball scene should be ready for another storm between the Green and Blue.

The scores: 

Ateneo 66 – Ravena 28, Salva 12, Buenafe 10, Tiongson 5, Slaughter 4, Chua 4, Sumalinog 3, Pessumal 0, Gonzaga 0, Elorde 0, Golla 0

De La Salle 63 – Andrada 17, Vosotros 14, Teng 12, N. Torres 6, T. Torres 5, Tampus 4, Van Opstal 3, Mendoza 2

Quarter scoring: 14-12, 31-26, 38-47, 66-63

Credits to Fabilioh for the image.