Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Season 76 Finals Preview: DLSU vs. UST

De La Salle Green Archers (10-4, #2) vs. UST Growling Tigers (8-6, #4)

Let's admit it, all the hype behind the DLSU-UST Finals is mostly the match-up between the Teng brothers. But then, it's more than that.

Season 76 Matches

Round 1: UST def. DLSU, 63-58 (OT)
  • Jeric Teng (UST): 23 pts (10/24 FG, 0/5 3FG), 2rebs, 3 assts
  • Jason Perkins (DLSU): 13 pts (5/11 FG, 0/1 3FG), 9 rebs (4 ORebs), 2 assts
  • Rebounding difference: +8 DLSU (52-44, 17-9 Orebs)
  • Free throws: DLSU 9/19 (47%), UST 17/23 (74%), Jeron Teng fouled out in OT
  • DLSU went on a 10-2 run in the fourth quarter to tie the game at 51, only to falter at the final minutes, with UST finishing the last five minutes with a 12-7 run
Round 2: DLSU def. UST, 69-64
  • Jeron Teng (DLSU): 19 pts (6/14 FG, 1/2 3FG, 6/7 FTA), 11rebs (5 ORebs), 2assts, 1stl, 1blk
  • Karim Abdul (UST): 18 pts (4/12 FG, 10/14 FTA), 12 rebs, 1stl
  • Green Archers snapped the Growling Tigers' 3-game winning streak, sweeps the second round of the eliminations
  • Rebounding difference: +12 DLSU (53-41, 19-9 ORebs)
  • Free throws: DLSU 13/17, UST 23/30
Five Factors

1. Backcourt

DLSU
LA Revilla - 6.2 ppg, 3.3rpg, 2.5apg, 0.9spg, 0bpg
Almond Vosotros - 13.0ppg, 4.9rpg, 1.9apg, 0.2bpg

UST
Jam Sheriff - 2.8ppg, 2.9rpg, 1.9apg, 0.4spg, 0bpg
Jeric Teng - 12.4ppg, 4.5rpg, 1.9apg, 0.6spg, 0bpg

Coach Pido Jarencio took the risk of fielding in Sheriff instead of Ed Daquioag, and in the Final Four bout against the NU Bulldogs, having a pure point guard who is going to run and merely set up passes proved to be effective. Given that Sheriff had to battle it out with Gelo Alolino and Robin Rono, both scoring point guards of their own right, handling LA Revilla might not be that difficult for him. However, one has to take note that Revilla is a more potent and able scorer than Alolino or Rono, and can go on a scoring frenzy especially now that he has the height advantage.

The Green Archers, however, have to hope as well that Almond Vosotros' shooting touch would return just in time to save the team. Since his 6 of 16 performance against the UE Red Warriors, he's gone 6 of 38 in the next four games (UE, UST, and twice against FEU), making only 1 out of 29 triples. The swashbuckling, pistol-wielding Jeric Teng, meanwhile, is back to his old form as a volume scorer, with mastery on the high and mid-post on the left baseline that makes up for the fact that all season long, he has just shot barely 18% of his triples. What can only be DLSU's hope in placing Vosotros against Teng is the former's resilience and determination in defending and containing Teng, keeping him out of his comfort zones, forcing threes out of him instead of letting him post up and position himself for a bank shot.

Advantage: 60-40 UST. Jeric Teng's consistency carried them to the Finals. If DLSU wants to catch up, they are going to need Vosotros and Revilla together to work.

2.Frontcourt

DLSU
Jeron Teng - 14.5ppg, 7.0rpg, 3.0apg, 0.8spg, 0.5bpg
Jason Perkins - 12.5ppg, 9.5rpg, 1.7apg, 0.3spg, 0.6bpg
Arnold Van Opstal - 8.9ppg, 6.3rpg, 0.9apg, 0spg, 0.9bpg

UST
Aljon Mariano - 12.7ppg, 8.9rpg, 2.3apg, 0.5spg, 0.2bpg 
Kevin Ferrer - 12.4ppg, 7.7rpg, 1.9apg, 0.7spg, 0.9bpg
Karim Abdul - 15.1ppg, 11.4rpg, 1.1apg, 0.9spg, 2.0bpg

The Green Archers play defense, and it's anchored on their frontcourt. In their second round sweep, it was mostly the different combinations on the four and five spots that Coach Juno Sauler played that carried the whole team. Perhaps it's Arnold Van Opstal's huge improvement from Season 75 as well as the overall play of the Hefty Lefty that has made the difference so far in this elimination rounds. Van Opstal can pretty much manage the post and dominate whoever going against him, while Perkins set the perfect picks for Teng and Revilla to cut through and make outside shooters more available once the defense collapses on the paint.

The same can be said of UST, but with an asterisk: Karim Abdul's performance. The third year center has it all on both sides of the court: speed, ability to cut, the post, midrange shooting, manning the paint, and the list even goes on (his Final Four averages, on both games against NU, shot to 13-13, close to his elimination figures). There are times, however, that he just settles to pull up rather than bully his defender in or get past him after a hard pick. If the Growling Tigers want to win this championship after a rather dramatic Season 75 loss against the Blue Eagles, then it will all be up to Abdul to carry them.

Advantage: 80-20 DLSU. Not that UST's frontcourt game isn't good, but they can't have two Karim Abduls to match up against the Twin Towers.

3.Bench

DLSU
Norbert Torres - 7.1ppg, 8.2rpg, 0.8apg, 0.1spg, 0.6bpg, 23.3mpg
Thomas Torres - 5.8ppg, 3.5rpg, 2.6apg, 0.6spg, 0.2bpg, 20.8mpg

UST
Ed Daquioag - 8.0ppg, 4.1rpg, 2.4apg, 0.6spg, 0.2bpg, 23.3mpg
Clark Bautista - 8.4ppg, 3.7rpg, 1.6apg, 0.4spg, 0bpg, 27.2mpg

Both teams have players that can produce nearly as good as starting lineups, and with defined roles to boot. Thomas Torres has been playing great basketball in the second round, lowering his turnovers and becoming more efficient in scoring, despite the fact that he does not play the role of court general as good as Revilla. Norbert Torres can be paired up with either Perkins or Van Opstal, and there seems to be no decrease in the backcourt performance. As for the Growling Tigers, both Clark Bautista and Ed Daquioag can be relied for quick points, especially when the team has to either catch up or secure the lead. Daquioag's ability to get past slower defenders and even play against point guards (remember that he took the one spot early in the season before Coach Pido inserted Sheriff late in the season) makes him a fastbreak threat, while Bautista remains to be a threat from beyond the arc coming off pops or when standing by and waiting for a catch-and-shoot (23 of 79 triples at 29%, which is not really a bad thing considering his reputation as a "hit-or-miss" gunslinger). However, the scales tip on the Green Archers primarily because no one among the frontcourt guys from the bench can equal his performance (Paulo Pe obviously isn't anywhere near him). If DLSU can force Abdul to sit on the bench due to foul trouble, then the game's as good as done.

Advantage: 80-20 DLSU. Twin Towers. That is all that we need to remember.

4.Offense

If at all, the Growling Tigers have become consistent with their offense, starting with their match against the Blue Eagles. Jeric Teng is back to his former self, which relieves much of the pressure that Aljon Mariano and Kevin Ferrer has carried all season long. It seems that the Growling Tigers know at the back of their heads the offense that Coach Pido wanted for them since Season 75. The Green Archers, however, lived on adjustments all season long, and if it only comes down to responding to each other's shots, DLSU could have their own way not by responding to threes (unless Vosotros brings his A-game back) but to fish fouls and score on the posts or from pick-and-roll plays. If all goes well, expect a slugfest to happen.

Advantage: 60-40 UST. *makes the Jeric Teng gunslinging gesture*. Consistency has been the name of the game for the Tigers, and with Teng, Mariano, and Abdul becoming creative and selective in terms of their shots, whether inside or outside, the DLSU offense has to find their own way of responding to UST's.

5.Defense

This is what would decide everything, given that the Finals is about the top two defensive teams in the league. DLSU has the clear advantage on the paint, but they must hold the fort on the outside and not succumb to the temptation to stretch the defense too far to excessively cover UST's shooters. The second round matchup has shown how Coach Juno Sauler responds to UST's red-hot shooting and has his own ways of dousing it with cold water, and it should work given that the Growling Tigers have largely lived and died with the three-point shot.

Advantage: 70-30 DLSU. Again, UST's lack of (flexible) big men would make things more difficult for them on the defensive end. And if UST intimidated NU with their physical play, the same cannot be said of the Green Archers.

The Verdict:

DLSU in 3 games.



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